AMLO channels the impossible Brexit logic of Britain’s Boris Johnson.

AMLO’s recent manoeuvres in Mexico echo the impossible logic of Brexit-era British politics. That's a stark reality for AMLO's Morena party as he "paused" embassy relations with the US and Canada this week. He did so, citing the “disrespectful” warnings that US and Canadian Ambassadors added to an avalanche of international concern this week about his judicial reform. It’s an action that further demoralised Mexico’s opposition. It could just as easily be a rallying point for them.

Boris Johnson’s 2019 landslide was built on his promise to “get Brexit done." He did this by alienating Britain’s closest allies and and attacking its institutions. Brexit was a major constitutional shift. It redefined Britain’s relationship with its closest trade partners. Its harsh realities were obvious. They were always in conflict with Boris' lofty rhetoric about sovereignty and Britain’s supposed invulnerability on the world stage.

Boris’ Conservatives (Tories) found themselves trapped by their own fantastical narrative. Johnson’s strategy was to have his cake and eat it. He tried to balance leaving the EU with retaining the benefits of membership. He insisted America would rescue Britain with a trade deal despite repeated American warnings to the contrary. It was gut feeling parading as strategy, free from empirical evidence. Indeed, all the available facts contradicted Boris.

We know what happened next. Boris' wishful thinking led to a hard Brexit. Once enacted, his project triggered economic decline, crumbling infrastructure, and a failing healthcare system. Boris’ Tories lost their base by plunging the nation into a predictable crisis. A party that seemed invincible in 2020 was loathed and a near irrelevance by 2024.

AMLO’s strategy mirrors Johnson’s mix of fantasy and gut-feeling chutzpah. Morena's officials believe Mexico’s global position is unassailable, in the face of all evidence and warnings. Like Johnson, AMLO doesn’t see that the independent institutions he hates have, in fact, underpinned his political success. They allowed Mexico to mostly preserve investor confidence while giving him a boogeyman to fight. That propped up his movement.

AMLO's reforms destabilise that political and economic landscape, as Johnson’s did to the UK. Just as Johnson’s successors found, it will be harder for Sheinbaum to raise the money she needs without those institutions. With less international investment, there's no expensive political programme.

It's already happening. Investor confidence has nosedived. Foreign investment plummeted by 80% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. The peso has weakened notably since Morena won its supermajority. The weaker peso will help exporters. But Mexico’s reliance on imports means ordinary Mexicans will suffer.

Mexico is at the start of its economic turbulence. It doesn't have to get worse. But allowed to worsen, Morena’s electoral coalition will fracture. Its coalition relies more on voter antipathy toward the alternative than enthusiasm for them. Once a party removes the institutions it blames for its country’s ills, it becomes exposed to the voters. Boris’ Tories learned this the hard way, too.

(Graphic: Alejandro Moreno, sourced from El Financiero, 12/07/24)

Claudia Sheinbaum’s position is not dissimilar to Rishi Sunak's after Johnson.

Sheinbaum, like Sunak, lacks the charisma and political instinct of her predecessor. She’s less culturally aligned with her party’s base. She’s tied herself to AMLO’s magical realism. She insists that Morena’s agenda doesn't violate USMCA. She dismisses the US Ambassador’s warnings to the contrary, saying AMLO’s reforms are “above a treaty.” No, they aren’t. The judicial reforms of the 1990s and 2000s boosted confidence in Mexico and deepened its integration with North America. Ignoring this history is a dangerous gamble.

Morena also channels the feeling of invincibility today that the British Conservatives had in 2020. They learned how misleading feelings can be.

The PRI had this aura for decades, too. Many Mexicans see Morena forging a modern-day PRI. But Morena’s position isn't as robust as the PRI’s early on. The PRI emerged in a much different context than Morena has. The PRI wasn't established around one man. In fact, the PRI often resembled a Soviet-style politburo. It consolidated power in various ways. One was through building and then controlling institutions.

Morena, by contrast, is a cult of personality. Its inherently anti-institutional. It’s grip on power is more brittle. Its purpose for existing, beyond mercenary political motivations, is less clear.

The tale of Boris Johnson and Brexit provides Morena with a cautionary tale: that which can't continue, won't. It provides cautious hope for Morena's opponents, too. But they have to do the work necessary to reconnect with Mexico. That means fixing their own problems. So far, no party has shown an interest in this. If one does, they'll undermine Morena’s central premise once its Jenga Tower of impossible logic collapses.