by Eduardo García.

Last year, millions in the Mexico City metropolitan area braced for “Day Zero”—when the region would run out of water. The crisis was narrowly avoided by an unusually intense rainy season from June to October, which replenished key water sources. However, experts warn that future shortages remain likely without significant, well-funded interventions.

Authorities have implemented measures like rainwater harvesting, repairing infrastructure, recycling water, and diversifying supply sources. Yet, these efforts are inconsistent and underfunded, leaving the region ill-prepared for the climate shifts that pushed it to the brink of collapse in 2024.

The high-altitude forest bordering Mexico City, Toluca, and Cuernavaca is critical for recharging aquifers. Known as the “Water Forest,” it serves as a key water source for millions.

Last week, Environmental Minister Alicia Bárcena, Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada, State of Mexico Governor Delfina Gómez, and Morelos Governor Margarita González met to address these threats.

“This territory is grappling with rampant illegal deforestation, soil extraction, land-use changes, and forest fires,” said Marian Boy, head of Mexico’s Federal Attorney for Environmental Protection. The meeting resulted in a signed agreement to preserve the Water Forest as a cornerstone of the region’s water strategy.

The agreement lays the groundwork for designating the Water Forest as a federally Protected Natural Area (PNA). In theory, this status strengthens legal protections, help recharge aquifers, and preserve biodiversity. The region currently includes Tepozteco and Zempoala Lagoons National Parks, which offer some protection but fall short of comprehensively addressing deforestation and land degradation.

Officials plan to merge these parks with surrounding forests to create a connected biological corridor. “We are committed to proposing a decree that will designate the Water Forest as a federally protected natural area,” said Governor Gómez.

Environmentalists remain skeptical of the government’s promises, citing a lack of sustained action and funding. “There is no point in creating more Protected Natural Areas if there isn’t a budget to enforce protections,” said Ruth Cerazo Mota, speaking in an interview last month. Cerazo Mota is a climate expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and a member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Successive budget reductions have already left existing PNAs unable to address worsening forest fires. These areas face further cuts this year.

Bárcena acknowledged funding challenges but highlighted potential solutions. She pointed to international support and payment-for-environmental-services programs, which could incentivize local communities to prevent deforestation and protect the forest’s ecological functions.

“For Morelos, this forest is essential,” said Governor González according to the newspaper Reforma, noting its importance in supplying water to Cuernavaca, Cuautla, and the Yautepec Valley.

While the plan includes sustainable forestry initiatives for local communities, it lacks details on funding. This omission has raised doubts about its feasibility. “The budget for Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua) has been reduced,” Cerazo Mota noted. “This undermines weather station networks, leaving us less prepared to respond to climate changes.”

For now, the Water Forest remains at risk. Its future still uncertain amid ambitious plans and insufficient funding. Without a genuine financial and political commitment, the spectre of “Day Zero” continues to haunt central Mexico.