Claudia Sheinbaum is rejecting the global stage, too

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum speaking in Mexico City. Image credit: Raj Valley, 2024.

Mexico looks set for six more years of diplomatic aloofness. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum signalled this week she will likely avoid international travel as President, adding she’s unsure whether she will attend the G20 summit in Brazil November 18-20.

Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) made just seven foreign trips during his six years in office. Five of them to the US, and none outside the Americas. AMLO’s critics hoped that Sheinbaum, seen as more globally minded due to her US education, would take a different approach. But with her announcement that her "responsibilities are [in Mexico]," it’s becoming clear those hopes are misplaced.

Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico is plunging. AMLO’s judicial reforms have sparked international concern, triggering a wave of negative press. Despite all this, Sheinbaum has remained aligned with AMLO during the transition. She backs his most controversial policies, including his constitutional reforms. Yet, some of her global goodwill remains intact. This is due in part to her historic election as Mexico’s first female president. Attending the G20 would be an opportunity to reassure Mexico’s key partners in person. She doesn't seem interested in making that effort.

Andrés Rozental served as Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Minister and has advised multiple Mexican presidents on foreign policy issues. “I find it unfortunate that Claudia has repeated AMLO’s trope about not traveling abroad,” he told The Mexico Brief. Rozental said, “Skipping the G20 in Brazil, the UN General Assembly in NY, and Davos early next year misses opportunities to showcase herself and her new government as different from AMLO. It undermines any attempt to reclaim Mexico’s role on the international stage.”

This decision is baffling—and politically short-sighted. But it’s not surprising.

For months, Mexico’s international partners, fatigued by AMLO, had pinned their hopes on Sheinbaum charting a new course. They point to her Berkeley education, scientific background, and technocratic nature as Mayor of Mexico City as reasons for optimism.

But that optimism is misplaced.

Sheinbaum’s ties to Mexico’s hard-left tradition run deeper than AMLO’s ever did. She embraces his most questionable projects, from costly and controversial infrastructure schemes to funnelling cash into Pemex and supporting his constitutional power grabs. Her incoming cabinet will consist largely of AMLO loyalists. Her prevarication this week communicates that she intends to replicate AMLO’s approach in both style and substance.

This is not just a matter of personal preference. Sheinbaum is politically bound to follow this path. AMLO will be out of office. But he will wield enough influence over Morena to recall her through a similar referendum as he subjected himself to if she deviates from his agenda.

Mexico’s global partners should stop waiting for Sheinbaum to emerge as a reformer. The country is drifting from the pluralist democracy it struggled to build over the past 24 years. Sheinbaum has given no indication that she intends to stop it. It’s time for the world to accept this reality and adjust accordingly.