Send in the heavies: extraditions underpin Mexico’s negotiations with Trump

Secretary of National Defense, Ricardo Trevilla Trejo (R), and Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch (L). Image credit: ZUMA Press / Alamy.

After a slow start, President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has shifted gears in dealing with President Donald Trump's tariff threats. Despite Trump's announcement this week that tariffs on Mexican goods will start on March 4th, Mexico's Trade, Security, Defence, and Foreign Secretaries have been in Washington for talks with White House officials. In response to Trump’s announcement this week, Sheinbaum urged calm, stating, "As you know, he has his way of communicating. You have to keep a cool head," according to AP.

On Thursday morning, Mexico extradited 29 drug traffickers to the US, including high-profile figures like Rafael Caro Quintero. This move coincided with Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch's meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The timing isn’t coincidental, it’s part of a strategic effort to delay the tariffs. Mike Vigil, former DEA international operations chief, highlighted the unprecedented nature of the extradition, telling the Financial Times, "Never in the history of Mexico have they signed the extradition of 29 individuals at one time."

According to Proceso, during the negotiation of the Bicentennial Framework Mexico committed to at least 60 extraditions to the US annually. In one day, Sheinbaum's administration has met nearly half that yearly obligation. Meanwhile, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) adhered strictly to the minimum. The quota wasn’t in place for his predecessors Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto, who both nevertheless extradited significantly more individuals than AMLO. This week's actions signal a departure from AMLO's cautious approach to security cooperation, indicating a new willingness to collaborate with Washington.

There's also a broader shift away from AMLO's "hugs not bullets" policy. Federal forces are now engaging more directly with criminal groups. A report from public policy analysts Integralia MX notes 61 violent clashes between Mexico's armed forces and organized crime in Sheinbaum's first 100 days—a near 100% increase from the same period during AMLO's term.

Arrest numbers have surged as well. Over 7,000 arrests were made in Sheinbaum's first 100 days, compared to just 31 during AMLO's. Additionally, approximately 3,000 firearms have been confiscated, a significant rise from the 26 seized in AMLO's initial months. Despite AMLO's non-confrontational stance, nearly 2,500 police officers were murdered during his tenure. While official homicide rates slightly declined from record highs, disappearances increased during his administration.

Sheinbaum has given broad outlines of her security strategy. The strategy focuses mostly on bolstering the National Guard and federal intelligence capabilities, as well as improving coordination between federal and local security forces. However, the security budget has been slashed by over 30% this year, and local governments often represent weak links in the anti-corruption chain. While the federal government initiated an operation against corrupt municipal leaders in November, resulting in about 20 arrests, this alone doesn't constitute a comprehensive anti-corruption effort, especially when figures like Governor Rubén Rocha Moya, who faces allegations of corruption and collusion with the Sinaloa Cartel, are welcomed into the President's political party.

Sheinbaum has been happy to let the headlines speak for themselves rather than explicitly repudiate AMLO’s legacy. Doing so would antagonize her mentor, who remains the dominant figure within the Morena Party. She has instead preferred to keep the domestic focus on her defence of Mexico’s national sovereignty, chiefly through two Constitutional amendments put forward last week.

Adopting nationalist rhetoric amid US pressure is understandable. However, Sheinbaum's reluctance to promote her own security agenda reflects the delicate balance her government must maintain with her base. It also raises questions about whether these actions are primarily for US appeasement or a genuine attempt to pacify the many regions of the country under organized crime's influence.

Sheinbaum believes that her administration's revamped security stance will earn approval in Washington. That proactive posture, along with the sharp decline in migrant interceptions at the border and Ebrard’s trade negotiations, underpins Sheinbaum's “cool head” this week. It’s a notable break from history, where all these issues have been dealt with separately within the bilateral relationship.

The tariffs may still proceed next week. But don’t discount the possibility that Mexico will secure another temporary reprieve, as Sheinbaum’s team use these data points to shift the tariff discussion toward a more targeted, sector-specific approach come April 2nd. That’s when Trump’s broader reciprocal tariff policy is due to be enacted. That would be painful, but preferable to an across-the-board application. Such an outcome would allow Trump to tout a promise made and kept, while incentivizing a speedy and successful renegotiation of the USMCA. Until then, Mexico’s newly minted, muscular security posture will remain conspicuously in place.