Facing uncertainty, Mexico prepares for mass deportations
Mexican nationals deported back to their homeland from the U.S., eat their dinner at the San Juan Bosco migrant shelter in Nogales, Mexico, Tuesday, June 25, 2024. Image credit: Jae C. Hong / Associated Press / Alamy.
Mexico is raising awareness about its plans to counter Donald Trump’s deportation threats. Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente addressed diplomats in Mexico City, promising the government is ready. He intended to reassure 4.1 million undocumented Mexicans in the US that Mexico has their back. Before the holidays, he visited several of Mexico’s 53 US consulates to meet the diaspora and solidify a strategy.
Beneath the strategy, there’s uncertainty. Nobody in Trump’s transition team, nor Trump himself, has given specifics regarding how far their deportation plans will go.
President Sheinbaum’s administration should consider two possible scenarios. One involves the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Trump floated it last year as reported here by NPR, but which legal scholars view as complicated. Another scenario might involve Trump expanding the existing 100-mile zone where CBP officers can operate. That’s a legal barrier that partly frustrated his first administration’s anti-migration efforts in 2018, as outlined in this NBC News report from the time. When incoming Border Czar Tom Homan talks of “shock and awe” on day one, watch for that.
Professor Jimmy Gurulé runs the University of Notre Dame’s Program for the Defence of Mexican Nationals in Criminal Matters (PDM), which is administered in conjunction with Mexico’s Foreign Ministry. He sees these scenarios as viable and “frightening,” and doesn’t feel prepared for what’s coming. The reason for that, he says, is “because we don’t know how this program is going to be implemented.”
The PDM forms one part of Mexico’s publicised strategy to defend its US-based citizens, the tentpole for which is the External Legal Advice Program (PALE). The Foreign Minister says these programs now include over 300 contracts and over 2,000 lawyers. An informal network of business leaders, community groups, and support from sanctuary cities like Los Angeles strengthens the effort. Mexico is also promoting a smartphone app with a “panic button” to alert consulates when users are detained.
Gurulé’s program exclusively represents Mexican nationals convicted of serious crimes in the US and who have a credible claim of innocence. Many of his clients have been exonerated by US courts. Nevertheless, they often remain incarcerated due to irregular immigration status. Gurulé has deep concerns that his clients will become the low hanging fruit of any mass deportation effort. He says he anticipates “a massive violation of constitutional and human rights,” and worries about his clients languishing in detention centres with little access to due process. He calls the proposed programme “un-American,” and warns the scale of the proposals floated by Trump “could break our legal system.”
But how far Trump is willing to go remains unclear, complicating efforts to prepare. A report from Arizona Central showed Trump voters in that state back deportations but give him flexibility on execution. Expelling all 4.1 million undocumented Mexicans in the US seems unlikely. Most undocumented Mexicans have lived in the US for over a decade, and 73% for more than 20 years. This grants them de facto legal residency despite any outstanding removal orders.
Still, targeting even a fraction of that cohort could strain Mexico. The country must accept any deported Mexicans. Sheinbaum has promised returnees a dignified reception, and Mexico has existing facilities for deportees like the nine operational centres in Tamaulipas. Officials say these can scale depending on the numbers. But by how much his unclear. According to ICE data, about 200,000 Mexican nationals were repatriated over the last four years. Mexico could be facing that number or higher in just one year alone.
Political developments in the US could complicate things further. The newly Republican-controlled Congress is debating the controversial Laken Riley Act, which passed the House. It’s now in the Senate complete with Democratic co-sponsorship. The measure includes provisions to dramatically reshape US immigration law. If passed, it would give state attorneys general immense enforcement powers, even allowing them to unilaterally bar entire national groups from entering the US, according to an NBC News analysis.
Even if 2025 were a normal year, Mexico’s US consulates would face pressure. Former President López Obrador neglected foreign affairs, leaving Mexico’s respected diplomatic corps underfunded and strained. Mexico’s consulates generate about $250 million annually. Whether that’s enough is hard to know with any certainty - little about 2025 will be a normal year for Mexico.
It all adds up to a deeply challenging situation. But even if deportations are limited to a couple hundred thousand per year, and the Laken Riley Act doesn’t pass, a network of 2,000 lawyers may still struggle. The government’s intentions are good. Yet, in a way that isn’t unfamiliar to Mexico, it remains vulnerable to events beyond its control.