A Harris win is the best hope for Mexico’s embattled democracy

Democratic presidential nominee and US VP Harris campaigns in Madison, WI on 30 October 2024. Image credit: Evelyn Hockstein / Reuters Pictures.

There’s only one outcome from Tuesday’s US election that will benefit Mexico: a win for Vice President Kamala Harris. This was true before Morena began dismantling Mexico’s democratic checks and balances, but now it’s critical. Mexico needs a US administration that takes democracy seriously. A Harris win is the only way to get there. Donald Trump has shown zero interest in defending democracy, at home or abroad. If he wins, Mexico’s challenges — already serious— will multiply. Some of his proposals, such as armed intervention, will provide cover for even more authoritarianism in Mexico.

During her campaign, Harris wisely stepped back from the intensity of President Joe Biden’s rhetoric on the democratic peril faced by America. But the peril is real. If Harris wins, American democracy averts catastrophe. Globally, though, democracy is already in crisis. That’s why, if she reaches the White House, she’ll need to tackle Biden’s shortcomings in this area head-on.

Biden came into office in 2021 with a big promise: he’d protect and expand democracy worldwide. He’s held Democracy Summits, talking up democracy’s importance from Delhi to Delaware. But when allies backslide, he barely blinks. Global democracy is worse off than when he started, despite his intentions. According to V-Dem Project, 71% of the world’s population now lives under autocratic rule. That’s up almost 50% in 10 years. The world hasn’t seen so little democracy since 1988. That was true in 2020. But instead of reversing the trend, Biden has seen it worsen.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Mexico. Just this week, with President Claudia Sheinbaum’s support, Mexico’s Congress passed a decree gutting the courts’ oversight power. It’s just the latest blow in a string of democracy-crippling moves Mexico has pushed through in Biden’s final months. Apart from a polite intervention from Ambassador Ken Salazar on judicial reforms, the Biden administration has been conspicuously muted.

A Harris administration could redress Biden’s shortcomings in two ways.

First, the US should drop any pretence around expanding democracy worldwide. Noble idea or not, it’s failed. The global decline in democracy is so deep that all efforts now need to focus on democracy preservation, not expansion. Second, a Harris administration must take a tougher stance on protecting democracies at risk. It could set an example by starting with the one right next door — Mexico. That means calling out and pushing back on anti-democratic moves in Mexico. To shore up democracy at home, Harris must do so abroad, too.

This won’t be easy for Democrats. Talk to Hill staffers or party strategists about Mexico’s democratic backsliding, and you’ll hear concern. Concern then followed by emphasis on respecting Mexico’s sovereignty. Sovereignty matters. But friends don’t let friends drive drunk. Democratic allies shouldn’t let each other junk their democracies. Mexico’s institutions are critical to American policymakers, who rely on them for security cooperation. They’re essential to American businesses, which depend on fair conditions to protect their investments. American NGOs need them to address the migration crisis at the border. Most importantly, Mexico’s democracy matters to the millions of Americans with close ties to it. These Americans help to effectively subsidise the Mexican government, through remittances, to the tune of 4% of Mexican GDP.

But there’s a political angle here for Harris. Mexico has enjoyed decades of political stability. But there’s no guarantee Morena continues that, despite their dominance. In fact, signs suggest it won’t. Sheinbaum is governing Mexico by decree. She’s piling up hundreds of billions in spending commitments Mexico can’t afford. Her security strategy, barely a month old, has already led to even more record violence. Many Mexican policymakers expect a financial crisis as soon as next year. Add to that a further law-and-order breakdown, and America will see a new wave of migration north.

Harris won’t “save” Mexico’s democracy. Only Mexicans can do that. But she can play a role if she chooses to. We’re certainly not suggesting American intervention in Mexico like Trump. But the US presidency needs to be clear, vocal, and public about the values America expects from its closest trade and security partner. Biden was shy about this, but Sheinbaum has never been shy about critiquing her northern neighbour. If elected, Harris should turn the page on Biden’s reticence and take one instead from Sheinbaum’s playbook. She’s the only candidate standing who can. If she wins, we hope she will.