Mayor’s murder signals perils for Sheinbaum’s security strategy & judicial reform

Mourners attend murdered Mayor of Chilpancingo Alejandro Arcos' funeral. Image credit: Alejandrino Gonzalez, Associated Press.

The assassination of Chilpancingo’s new mayor has refocused attention on Mexico’s political violence crisis. Alejandro Arcos is the first mayor of a Mexican state capital to be murdered since the 1990s. It happened just as President Claudia Sheinbaum readied her new security strategy for the country.

Sheinbaum’s election came amid Mexico’s most violent campaign cycle on record. Vanda Felbab-Brown is a security expert from the Brookings Institution. Speaking before Arcos' murder, she highlights the shift in organised crime’s influence during López Obrador's administration. “There is something specific about this electoral cycle,” Felbab-Brown explained. “It's to do with the utter brazenness and impunity that criminal groups gained under López Obrador. His administration was one gigantic experiment in decriminalising organised crime.”

Arcos' predecessor, Norma Otilia Hernández, was infamously recorded meeting with Los Ardillos. That criminal group controls much of Chilpancingo's surrounding region. Arcos publicly refused to strike a deal with the gang. His brutal murder underscores the evolving power these groups have amassed over a decade. Their priorities have shifted beyond drugs to more entrenched economic control.

Los Ardillos were once key players in heroin trafficking. According to Insight Crime, that's changed. Today their revenues derive from silver and gold mine exploitation, as well as extortion. This shift away from narcotics is fuelling Mexico’s spike in political violence. “These groups don’t want to topple the government,” Felbab-Brown notes. “But they have concrete political objectives. They’re advancing specific agendas. And while they lack political ideology, their actions have serious political implications.”

Sheinbaum rejected a return to what she termed Calderón’s war on drugs. Instead, she emphasized prevention, addressing root causes, intelligence sharing, and increased police presence. Her presentation was polished. It contrasted with AMLO’s charismatic yet unfocused style. Specifics on implementation were scant. Her Security Secretary, Omar Harfuch, worked with Sheinbaum in Mexico City. He points to declining homicide rates during his tenure there as proof his strategy works. Critics note that disappearances spiked in the city as homicides fell, hinting at deeper problems.

The stakes for Sheinbaum’s plan are high. Her party recently passed legislation to reform the country’s judiciary. It's a reform which makes all judges elected. But Arcos’ murder raises stark questions while foreshadowing a dangerous future. If a sitting mayor can be executed, what hope for a newly exposed judiciary? The success of Sheinbaum’s strategy is crucial. These reforms mean failure could result in snowballing insecurity, where Arcos' execution is mere prologue.