What’s behind Mexico’s apparent security shake-up?
The National Guard gathers at the beginning of an anti-extortion exercise in Michoacán in late November 2024. Image credit: Ivan Arias / Reuters.
Mexico’s Security Secretary, Omar García Harfuch, travelled to Sinaloa this week, a state 85 days into a fierce turf war between Sinaloa Cartel factions. According to Proceso, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced he’ll stay several days to coordinate the government’s response to the state’s security crisis. His visit follows a record fentanyl seizure in Sinaloa by the Mexican military. Two major raids there netted over a tonne of fentanyl pills, reportedly the largest haul in Mexico’s history. The moves are intended to signal a shake-up of Mexico’s security strategy. Observers doubt the timing is coincidental.
The highly choreographed moves came as US President-elect Donald Trump threatens sweeping tariffs unless Mexico cracks down on drug trafficking and migration. Mexico needs to keep its northern border with the US open, and the government reckons this is the price to make that happen.
It’s not the only recent security push, either. Last week, the National Guard and Navy launched a 100-day operation targeting extortion rackets in Michoacán. In Estado de México, García Harfuch led a crackdown on 14 officials tied to organized crime, including Morena figures like the mayor of Amanalco. In Guanajuato, a conveniently abandoned meth lab was raided. Meanwhile, in Mexico City, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard oversaw a raid on warehouses holding Chinese contraband.
This flurry of security action marks a sharp departure from former President López Obrador’s (AMLO) “hugs not bullets” strategy. Security analyst David Saucedo told the AP, “Under pressure from Donald Trump, it appears President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is willing to increase the capture of drug traffickers and drug seizures that Washington is demanding.” Former Ambassador Arturo Sarukhán quipped on X that Sheinbaum seems to be following the “Presley doctrine” of security: “a little less conversation, a little more action.”
The timing of this supposed pivot is significant. A Mexico Evalúa study reported by El Economista this week slammed Morena’s 2018–2024 security policy. The National Guard failed to reduce homicides where they were stationed; in fact, homicides were more likely to fall where they weren’t stationed. Scrapping the Security Strengthening Fund (Fortaseg) cut besieged local police forces by 34%, while military spending soared 42%, funding vanity projects like the Tren Maya. The result? An officially lower homicide rate by 2024 but soaring disappearances and other violent crimes.
So, it’s clear Sheinbaum’s government has reasons to act. For now, it’s too soon to say that these actions signal a genuine shift in security strategy, as opposed to being theatre. The situation in Chiapas and Tabasco remains dire, and the government continues to deny it. Questioned about a New York Times splash outlining cartel recruitment drives in Mexico’s universities, Sheinbaum was dismissive. And don’t forget the Army general’s infamous statement: it’s not the military’s job to stop Sinaloa’s violence.
The likeliest scenario? This is optics. Plenty of Mexico’s elites - in and out of Morena - think Trump’s threats are bluff, aimed at quick PR wins. If so, Mexico might be staging actions to placate him, not fix its worsening security crisis.
Just follow the money.
Sheinbaum’s proposed 2025 budget doesn’t suggest a serious fight against organised crime is imminent. Spending on security is down 34% according to Reuters. There’s no provision for bolstering or reforming Mexico’s prosecutors’ offices despite the unnecessary judicial reform. What’s more, there’s no boost for those battered local police forces. In their under-resourced state they are vectors for corruption. But if made robust, local police forces can be key to combating criminal groups. Unlike the military, a well-trained, motivated, and resourced police force can respond to emergencies immediately and build community links. Military units, bound by doctrine, often wait for reinforcements, arriving too late to confront violence.
The government’s rhetoric and its budget all point to recent actions being headline grabbers, designed to get Trump to back off. But just because Trump’s ideas about Mexico are bad doesn’t mean he hasn’t gifted the government an opportunity. In choosing to respond constructively to Trump’s cynical bluster, Sheinbaum could begin the process of confronting Mexico’s real enemies. For now, she’s simply placating the adversary up north.