Mexico’s lower house passed the 2025 Federal Budget this week during an acrimonious session. The most striking outcome was a 40% reduction in environmental spending. President Claudia Sheinbaum, a former climate scientist and member of the Nobel Prize-winning UN IPCC panel, will now oversee a budget that allocates just 0.1% of GDP to environmental protection. This marks the lowest level of environmental funding in 18 years, according to a newly released report by NOSSA, a non-partisan Mexican environmental think tank.

The report indicates that this isn’t an isolated development. Environmental protection spending in Mexico has been steadily declining. It dropped 81% over the last three presidential administrations. During the same period, Mexico has lost nearly 10% of it total tree cover according to Global Forest Watch.

“This can only mean a larger deterioration of the environment,” says Ruth Cerezo-Mota, a climate expert at UNAM’s Institute of Engineering, and who was also a lead author of the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. She explains that the negative implications of the cuts on Mexico’s natural environment are vast. The resources impacted include those dedicated toward the prevention of illegal logging, the illicit exploitation of wildlife and flora, as well as the dispossession of Indigenous communities’ land, who Cerezo-Mota describes as stewards of the best preserved regions in the country. Also put at risk are the vital web of regulatory and technical bodies which monitor Mexico’s environment. Without them, Cerezo-Mota explains, “We cannot assess the progress, or lack thereof, in reducing our emissions under the Paris Agreement.”

These cuts stand out due to Sheinbaum’s professional background and her public stance on climate. Just three weeks ago she delivered a speech at the G20 in Brazil. There, she advocated for a shift from military funding to environmental initiatives, and specifically reforestation programmes.

We explained why that appeal was cynical. But actions speak louder than words, and Morena’s congressional leadership this week prioritised the exact opposite of Sheinbaum’s appeal. Ricardo Monreal, Morena’s Coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies, succeeded during negotiations in boosting military funding by MXN$44 billion, at the expense of environmental programmes.

What remains of the environmental budget is heavily allocated to projects with dubious climate benefits. The Tren Maya rail project is one example, which Cerezo-Mota describes as “Not environmentally friendly at all.” Additionally, funds are being directed toward natural gas transportation, a significant source of methane emissions.

Also draining potential funds for environmental programs is the government’s massive investment in the state oil giant Pemex. A key focus of this spending is propping up Pemex’s struggling and highly polluting refineries.

Then there’s CFE, the state energy utility, which has even more cash earmarked for it than Pemex. CFE accounts for 17% of Mexico’s total carbon emissions, according to Mexico Evalúa. It’s also faced criticism in the past for lacking a clear sustainability plan. While La Joranda reports CFE plans to address these criticisms, the proposals rely heavily on adopting so-called green hydrogen. Green hydrogen is an energy source which MIT climate scientist Emre Gençer says has potential with technological advances that aren’t here yet, adding “It completely depends on how clean the [production process] is.” Because of that, it’s been dismissed by other climate experts like Robert Howarth. Howarth is a Cornell University professor of environmental biology, who called the technology “a marketing myth” in an interview with The Guardian last year.

All of this reflects something deeper than the initial policy choices of the new government. It illustrates the biggest problem with Sheinbaum’s presidency: it isn’t hers.

Sheinbaum is captured by her predecessor’s agenda. The infrastructure projects and the energy commitments are his. AMLO also ramped up collossal spending on unfunded social programmes that now form the backbone of the Morena project. He bequeathed an all-hands-on-deck situation for Sheinbaum to deliver his legacy, not her agenda. It’s why Sheinbaum’s political position is so tenuous within her own party. It’s also the reason why anyone would be hard-pressed to define Sheinbaum-ism.

Cerezo-Mota is disappointed, but not surprised, by the turn of events. “During [Sheinbaum’s] mandate in Mexico City, she did not prioritise the environment,” she says. “Sheinbaum promised the continuation of the 4T, which never had the environment as a priority. AMLO’s first move was to cut 50% of the funding and staff for Mexico’s Secretariat of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT).”

But the President has made her climate credentials a key part of her global image. Much of the world outside of Mexico knows Sheinbaum primarily because of her background as a climate scientist. Her first budget reflects a striking disconnect between her stated priorities and legislative outcomes. That say-do gap is a common feature of Mexican presidencies. Even by historic standards, though, this one stands out.