Mexico’s Judicial Reform softens, but still threatens USMCA

AMLO holding a press conference in Mexico City. Photo credit: Imago.

This week, Mexico’s ruling party, Morena, hinted at potential compromises on its judicial reform bill. This signals a response to mounting international and domestic concerns. The reforms were initially planned as a sweeping overhaul. They would see all 1,600 of Mexico’s judges fired and replaced through popular elections with unclear minimum qualifications. Pensions would be seized. It’s a proposal as bold as it is alarming.

President López Obrador (AMLO) denies that market volatility since June’s election is related to his policies. Morena’s new concessions suggest the government nonetheless feels the pressure. The revised plan introduces a staggered election process and retention of pensions. It also provides an ill-defined technical committee to establish minimum standards for candidates. But details of those standards remain thin. The concessions seem more like half-measures to placate critics than real solutions.

Ernestina Godoy, a key figure in Morena and former Attorney General of Mexico City, acknowledged that the reforms aren’t even enough to achieve AMLO’s vision. Speaking at a National Dialogue in Sinaloa this week, Godoy admitted that no fewer than 18 other laws would need amending to make the judicial overhaul functional. Morena has the numbers to push this through. But the reforms risk becoming a legislative quagmire that could monopolize Congress’s next term, fracturing Morena’s broad coalition.

The opposition sees this as personal revenge by AMLO against a judiciary that's thwarted his pet projects. He claims that the reforms are to curb impunity. His critics argue that unqualified judges, loyal to Morena, could weaponize the judiciary against political rivals. The fear is that Mexico could follow the path of Bolivia. There, the judiciary became a tool for political vendettas under both left- and right-wing regimes.

This controversy looms large over the upcoming renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal (USMCA) in 2026. That might seem distant. But the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is already inviting comments on USMCA’s extension. It will publish a report based on this evidene in early 2026. The influential Business Roundtable has invited President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum to meet in March 2025. This is a crucial moment that will set the tone for U.S.-Mexico relations. By then, AMLO’s judicial reforms will likely have passed but not yet implemented. They'll cast a long shadow over discussions.

A former Mexican cabinet official, speaking anonymously, warned The Mexico Brief that these reforms could create a “worst-case scenario” for USMCA’s extension, regardless of who is in the White House. Last week Sheinbaum appointed Arturo Zaldívar to coordinate the reforms' implementation. He's a former Supreme Court President and close AMLO ally. His presence suggests any hopes the new administration will course-correct are misplaced.

AMLO’s judicial reform comes paired with a looming regulator cull. Together, these threaten to destabilize Mexico’s economy during Sheinbaum’s term. The vague compromises announced this week might be welcome, but they don’t remedy the situation.

Mexico undoubtedly needs criminal justice reform. Police are under-resourced and evidence handling is poor. Prosecutors lack staff, and witness tampering occurs. There is also corruption within the judiciary, though not to the extent AMLO suggests. But AMLO’s proposed reforms address none of these issues. At Sinaloa's National Dialogue, Judge Marlén Ángeles Tovar captured the mood. She called for “real transformation” that benefits victims, police, and prosecutors alike.

Done right, judicial reform could enhance Mexico’s appeal to investors and smooth USMCA negotiations. Most importantly, it could improve lives. Claudia Sheinbaum’s a scientist. She has the evidence-based grounding that could make the difference in tackling entrenched issues. As it stands, Sheinbaum instead seems set on pursuing her predecessor’s fraught path.