Sheinbaum’s Washington outreach faces questions amid looming US actions on trade, cartels

President Claudia Sheinbaum at a morning press briefing in Mexico City on 27 January 2025. Image credit: Sipa US / Alamy.

It’s been a whirlwind first two weeks in Trump’s Washington, but for Mexico reality hasn’t yet bit. That’s about to change. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump plans to move ahead with tariffs on February 1st. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to report early next week on whether Mexican cartels will be designated as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). For Mexico, much of the Trump fallout so far has been rhetorical. The next two weeks could be far more consequential for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

According to Reuters, Leavitt told the White House Press Corps, “We have seen a historic level of cooperation from Mexico. But… as far as I'm still tracking, and that was last night talking to the president directly, February 1st is still on the books.”

Sheinbaum said Wednesday that she doesn’t believe the White House will impose tariffs on Saturday. But Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Howard Lutnick, made sure to highlight his own preference for tariffs this week. Speaking to the Senate, he said, “I prefer across the board (tariffs). When you pick one product in Mexico, they’ll pick one product…My way of thinking…is country by country, macro.”

If Trump follows through with tariffs this weekend or soon after, it will shake up months of assumptions in Mexico. Many government and business leaders still believe Trump’s threats are empty. Some think Mexico is too big to fail. Others point to the clash between Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over deportation flights, seeing a Trump climbdown from tariffs. But the flights are still taking off for Colombia. Petro got nothing.

Arturo Sarukhán, Mexico’s former Ambassador to Washington, thinks lessons can be learned from that. “Diplomacy should not be conducted via the mañanera or social media,” he says. “Sheinbaum has a cabinet for that.”

But Sheinbaum’s cabinet is absent in Washington. Not a single cabinet secretary has travelled to Washington since Claudia Sheinbaum was inaugurated on October 1st last year. Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente says he had a phone call with Rubio, but the State Department has no public record of it. They do for dozens of other international calls. Maybe the call happened. But the lack of documentation raises uncomfortable questions. Mexico’s Ambassador to the US, Esteban Moctezuma, hasn’t given a major interview in more than three years. He hasn’t recorded any public meetings with US congressional leadership since Trump took office.

Sarukhán sees Mexico’s absence north of the border as a dangerous sign. “The administration needs to activate the allies that Mexico has, which it’s not doing,” he explains. “We need more proactive communication with DC, with governors, and stakeholders outside the Beltway. Look at the Canadians,” he says.

Instead, Sheinbaum’s government is spending a lot of time on PR games. Her press conferences let domestic reporters focus on Trump. It generates soundbites for a receptive home audience and the anti-Trump progressives internationally. But the messaging is a mess. “It’s unmanageable,” Sarukhán warns. “You don’t play tit-for-tat gamesmanship and grandstanding with diplomacy and Trump.”

This approach extends to security policy. Mexican security is already a minefield. Rubio’s upcoming FTO report will make it even more complex.

Sarukhán expects the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels to be the first designated. But that won’t be the end of the conversation. “It’s a proactive process on the part of the Presidency,” he says. “Military options or financial sanctions don’t get triggered automatically as a result of the FTO designations.”

What is guaranteed? A tougher balancing act for Sheinbaum. Sarukhán predicts Trump will use FTO status to demand more aggressive joint action against the cartels. If Sheinbaum resists, things get messy. “Depending on the cards they see on the table from the Mexican government, they will either double down or they will say Trump has done what he said he was going to do.” A smart move would be to signal to the White House understanding that cartels are a national security threat to both nations. Sheinbaum could resuscitate bilateral security cooperation, which was gutted by López Obrador during his six-year tenure.

It’s a high-wire act. Sheinbaum’s government faces costs no matter what they do. But Sheinbaum is making it harder for herself. Smarter, more direct engagement with Washington will help. But first, Sheinbaum needs to clarify her own objectives—both for herself and her cabinet. She doesn’t have much time. Two weeks from now, she could be dealing with something far worse than rhetoric: actions. And actions have consequences.