Sheinbaum’s paradox: ‘Sovereignty’ from Trump requires breaking from AMLO

President Claudia Sheinbaum addressing a rally at Mexico City’s Zocalo. Image credit: Eyepix Group / Alamy.

The mood music out of Washington toward Mexico this week was upbeat. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called US-Mexico cooperation on migration and drugs "historic." And Trump’s pick for ambassador, Ron Johnson, praised Mexico’s cartel crackdown according to El Financiero. Both pushed for more action, and neither fully removed the looming threat of unilateral military action against Mexico’s cartels, but the tone was friendlier than usual. That’s a reprieve for President Claudia Sheinbaum, who on Sunday celebrated the partial lifting of US tariffs in Mexico City’s Zocalo before 350,000 supporters.

Sheinbaum told the crowd she expected no new tariffs when Trump announces his global trade policy on April 2, according to Bloomberg. It was striking to see a nominally leftist Mexican president fiercely defend what is fundamentally the signature economic achievement of Carlos Salinas’ government, all while rallying a crowd overwhelmingly derisive of that government’s legacy.

She again emphasized Mexico’s sovereignty, telling the crowd, “We cannot give up our sovereignty, nor can our people be affected by decisions made by foreign governments or hegemonies. In that case, we will always act immediately," according to Reuters. The irony? Mexico hasn’t retaliated against Trump’s tariffs at all. Critics note that Canada and the EU have hit back, while Mexico has played a more subtle hand.

Is that smart?

The peso has dropped roughly 20% against the dollar since its heights last year. That gives Mexico’s exports a de facto discount against Trump’s tariffs. But even if Sheinbaum talks tough on sovereignty, she knows Mexico’s weak fiscal and security positions - both thanks to AMLO - leaves little room for bold reaction. The President is operating in an environment that demands subtlety. The real danger for Sheinbaum isn’t caution; it’s getting boxed in by her own rhetoric if Trump escalates the trade war, whether on April 2nd or later.

And while Sheinbaum got a brief break from Washington’s drama this week, pressure is building at home. Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O resigned last Friday. It’s a move that was expected and his deputy, Edgar Amador, has taken over. But de la O reassured markets, and his exit at such a sensitive time for the government’s accounts still felt jarring.

Meanwhile, signs of economic strain are growing. El Economista this week highlighted a slump in Mexico’s auto sector, with heavy vehicle production and exports down in February. And Morena’s flagship youth jobs program has been dealt a blow. Despite officials claiming the MXN $120 billion they’ve spent has yielded a 70% success rate in placing unemployed young adults into work, a report from Animal Político showed the actual success rate at less than 5%.

Most sensitive for the government, however, will be criticism from the Institute for Women in Migratin (IMUMI), a Mexican NGO. The group slammed Sheinbaum’s on the ground response to Trump’s deportations. What of Mexico’s support for its citizens in the US? According to IMUMI, a list of pro bono lawyers and nothing else. IMUMI’s Rossy Atúnez warned that returnees are being left stranded, telling Proceso, “What they're doing is crowding institutions along the border. They're putting officials from the Ministries of Education, Welfare, and Health in the tents. But people aren't staying at the border; they're trying to return to their communities of origin, and what they're finding is that these communities are controlled by organized crime and there's a lack of job opportunities.”

We flagged this problem in January. No additional funds were allocated to support Mexico’s returnees then despite a high profile PR push by the government, and none have been forthcoming in the meantime.

That disconnect between action and rhetoric is the recurring theme of Sheinbaum’s presidency so far. It’s the result of her poor economic inheritance, binding her to ineffective social programs that are expensive to administer and politically costly to scrap. She’s shown skill in navigating Trump’s unpredictability. But her ability to maneuver is undercut by the fiscal weaknesses she inherited from AMLO but which underpins her party’s political success.

Sheinbaum can’t control Trump’s decisions on April 2. But if she wants real sovereignty - the kind she speaks so passionately about - she needs to start addressing the structural economic problems holding Mexico back. It would give her more maneuverability with Trump and allow her independence from AMLO’s shadow. With an 80% approval rating, this should be easy. The fact that it’s not tells you all you need to know about the reality of Sheinbaum’s position.