Sheinbaum’s populism helps her find common ground with Trump
President Sheinbaum with a supporter in 2024. Image credit: dpa picture alliance / Alamy.
by David Agren.
Mexico received another tariff reprieve Thursday – the second in as many months. The leadup to the reprieve mirrored the first in February, though US President Donald Trump had already slapped tariffs on Canada and Mexico two days earlier.
President Claudia Sheinbaum delayed her morning press conference Thursday to have a phone call with Trump – just like she did prior to the first reprieve. She emerged afterward to a triumphant tweet, announcing another pause on tariffs for items meeting USMCA requirements.
Trump posted a similar message on social media, outlining the agreement. He brokered the deal “out of respect for President Sheinbaum,” who he has spoken fondly of – unlike his Canadian counterpart, outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Canada got a reprieve, too, after hours of waiting.)
“Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” Trump said on Truth Social.
The agreement once again showed Sheinbaum’s deft skill in managing Trump, even after the White House accused the Mexican government of having an “intolerable alliance” with drug cartels. She maintained her firm, sober and somewhat dry communications with the country, talking back with Trump without antagonizing him, raising Mexican frictions over issues such as guns coming into the country and promising dialogue. At the same time, she quietly agrees to US demands – especially on security matters.
Trudeau, in comparison, announced retaliatory tariffs. Canadian provinces unveiled measures such as pulling US booze from government liquor stores and putting surcharges on power going to the United States. “What (Trump) wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will make it easier to annex us,” he said.
Sheinbaum speaks of sovereignty ad nauseam. But she ultimately cooperates.
She showed numbers proving cooperation with the United States: 50 per cent less fentanyl crossing the border – after AMLO, her predecessor, famously insisted fentanyl wasn’t made in Mexico. Migration through Mexico has collapsed. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had 8,239 migrant encounters in February – the lost monthly total on record. All of this followed Sheinbaum sending 10,000 soldiers to the northern border as part of Mexico receiving its initial reprieve.
“We will continue to work together, particularly on migration and security issues, including the reduction of fentanyl illegally crossing into the United States, along with weapons into Mexico,” Sheinbaum said.
For his part, Trump spoke effusively of his Mexican counterpart when signing the orders for pausing tariffs.
“I spoke with the president of Mexico, wonderful woman today, and we helped them out with a problem they were having, having to do with the tariffs, short-term tariffs. And we had a very good conversation. Also we discussed drugs, they’ve been working much harder lately, do you notice that on people coming in and drugs? And we’ve made tremendous progress on both.”
Vice President J.D. Vance was asked about Mexico, too, on Thursday, when a journalist wondered if US intervention was possible. “No,” Vance responded tersely.
Trump’s public esteem for Sheinbaum contrasts sharply with his scorn for Trudeau. He belittles the Canadian leader as “governor,” while referring to Canada as the 51st state and openly threatening annexation.
“Despite the terrible job he's done for Canada, I think that Justin Trudeau is using the Tariff problem, which he has largely caused, in order to run again for Prime Minister. So much fun to watch!,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Trudeau leaves office March 9, when the ruling Liberal Party picks a new leader. Ironically, Trump rescued the Liberals, who trailed the Conservative Party by 25 points in January, but roared back to competitiveness as the next election became a question on who can best confront the US leader.
Sheinbaum enjoys an approval rating topping 80 per cent, in comparison, while the opposition is moribund. Like Canada’s Liberal Party, she’s used Trump for domestic political purposes. She scheduled a rally for Sunday in the Zócalo, where she was to announce her response to Trump. She used the event – a populist staple for her predecessor, but also a trope from PRI presidents of past decades – to portray the opposition as unpatriotic for not potentially attending.
The Mexican president is often portrayed more of a technocrat than a populist due to her scientific background. But, unlike Trudeau, the poster child of a cosmopolitan political class on the decline, Sheinbaum rose through AMLO’s populist political movement.
AMLO famously got along with Trump – two populists with a similar style of politics. Sheinbaum recalled that relationship during her post-announcement press conference. She raised the time that Twitter suspended Trump’s account – something AMLO denounced as wrong. Sheinbaum recalled, "Of the few people in the world who said that it is wrong, because it is wrong in every sense, the censorship, was president López Obrador. … ‘Do you remember?’ President Trump said that. So all of that influences the good relationship."
Canadian politicians once curiously thought they curry favour with Trump by cutting Mexico out of the USMCA. They never paid attention to Mexico’s ability to deal with the first Trump administration, much less AMLO finding common ground with Trump in populist politics.
Mexico electing a populist government just might be what ultimately spares the country the worst of Trump’s wrath.