Felipe Calderón: Sheinbaum must confront the cartels before they completely capture Mexico
In an exclusive interview with The Mexico Brief’s editor, Andrew Law, former President Felipe Calderón rejects the “drug war” label, expresses support for Claudia Sheinbaum’s stance toward cartels, praises her anti-nepotism efforts, and argues US cooperation is crucial - even under Trump - while expressing hope for Mexico’s future.
Former President of Mexico, Felipe Calderón, at a demonstration in February 2025 to commemorate the third anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Image credit: SOPA Images Ltd / Alamy.
by Andrew Law.
Felipe Calderón could be forgiven for feeling vindicated. While many continue to demand he answer for his controversial presidency, recent events suggest his security strategy of confronting Mexico’s criminal groups is coming back into play.
Former President López Obrador (AMLO) made Calderón a political punching bag, accusing him of rigging the election in 2006. President Sheinbaum has described his confrontational strategy as a war, calling it “authoritarian and irresponsible.” She’s told a press conference recently she wanted an apology from him, however Calderón tells me he rejects this categorization of his security approach.
But cartel confrontations are surging under Sheinbaum’s administration. She’s also clocking up rising arrests and record extraditions. It’s a security approach which increasingly echoes Calderón's rather than AMLO’s failed “hugs, not bullets" policy, which left the country with almost 200,000 dead across his six-year term.
“We tried to make Mexico a rule of law country”
“I am a man of law,” Calderón tells me, his voice measured. The rule of law is a refrain throughout our conversation.
Mexico faces one of its most dangerous eras: impunity, violence, extortion, constitutional upheaval, economic struggles, and insurgency are all exerting unprecedented pressure on Sheinbaum’s government. On top of that, she faces the most hostile US administration in generations, with Donald Trump imposing sweeping tariffs against half of Mexico’s exports and threatening to launch unilateral military strikes.
“There is no choice but to fight and defeat the criminals,” Calderón insists, saying, "My government aimed to make Mexico a rule-of-law country. We made real progress." He laments how successive governments abandoned his strategy, not just referring to AMLO’s hands-off approach. He also notes a subtler shift under Enrique Peña Nieto. He sees a devastating cost in bloodshed and a broader unravelling of Mexico’s institutions.
Calderón left office with an approval rating hovering around 60%. But for many Mexicans, his term represents a deeply painful chapter of history. It culminated with homicide rates at then historic highs. Nearly 57,500 were dead by the end of his presidency, double the rate when he took office. Calderón insists that, as rates were declining by his final two years, the policy was working. Homicide figures continued falling for the first two years of Peña Nieto’s term, before spiking again, staying at record levels throughout AMLO’s presidency.
“We lost more than a decade,” he says. For Calderón, the strategy wasn’t limited to drugs. It was as much about modernization as security. He links Mexico’s economic struggles to rising violence and extortion. To make the point, he highlights Harvard economist Robert Barro’s research, which shows rule-of-law stability adds three points to annual GDP growth.
That belief in development stands up in his administration’s numbers. Throughout his term healthcare outstripped military spending. His spending on education was greater at the height of his war than at any point in AMLO’s term, whose total social expenditure barely nudged up from Calderón’s.
“Cartels want to completely capture Mexico”
For Calderón, this link between security and development makes it “a legal and moral obligation” to confront cartels. Taking office, the scale of their power shocked him. “The size and capacity of these criminals were beyond anyone’s imagination,” he says. He’s dismissive of claims that organized criminals aren’t looking for political power. “Their goal,” he says, “is to completely capture the state to run their businesses.”
For her part, Sheinbaum is publicly derisive of the concept of waging war on these groups, telling reporters, “Declaring war means the laws are subjugated.” In one of her first press conferences as President, she announced, “The war on drugs will not return.”
Nevertheless, her actions trend toward those of Calderón’s over AMLO’s. Calderón is relieved Sheinbaum has abandoned her predecessor’s appeasement, saying, “She’s definitely changed strategy, whether she recognizes it or not.” But he fears it may be too late, adding, “The country is captured in in a very significant part of its territory.”
Calderón is frank, “We assumed the [Vicente] Fox team was reliable on security issues. But the problem with organized crime was completely underestimated, almost ignored. Nobody knew the level of penetration at every level: federal, state and local. Today, it’s several times higher.” We could not immediately reach representatives of Vicente Fox for comment.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, a security expert at Brookings Institute, echoed Calderón’s account in a conversation we had last year. She painted a picture where he assumed office motivated to go after cartels and government complicity. “But quite rapidly,” she asserts, “he’s stunned by the level of dirty socks that the Mexican government has in all the drawers. And the extent of how dirty they are.”
It’s a stark assessment that aligns with Trump’s executive order labelling cartels as having “an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” It’s an extraordinary charge, reflecting how US-Mexico security cooperation collapsed under AMLO.
“Cooperation with America is the only way forward”
Under Calderón, coordination with US agencies was its most developed. Given Trump’s threats, rekindling that cooperation feels daunting. However, Calderón states cooperation must be restored. “It’s the only way forward,” he says. “Cooperation, not imposition. But to get cooperation, reliability and trust must be built from both sides.”
Sheinbaum is restoring some of that cooperation, under pressure and despite protests of sovereignty. She never fails to mention that the only Mexican official convicted in the US for cartel ties is Calderón’s ex-security chief, Genaro García Luna. The revelations are devastating for Mexico. They also stalk Calderón’s legacy, and deflect attention from Sheinbaum’s own party’s scandals (such as allegations against Sinaloa Gov. Rubén Rocha Moya).
Calderón maintains, “I never had evidence that could be verified or reliable witnesses that could implicate him with illegal activities.” He stresses the fact that American intelligence agencies interacted with García Luna almost daily. He also points out that some of the witnesses who testified against the ex-security chief were felons later released from US prison because of plea deals, noting many were captured and extradited to the US by his government.
The former president insists, “this case doesn’t demerit the actions of thousands of people who put their lives at risk, very many losing their lives, to protect the Mexican people.”
“Sheinbaum’s purpose is honest… good will prevail”
Calderón believes Sheinbaum’s intentions are good, saying, “She has an honest purpose.” But good intentions only take leaders so far. He wants Sheinbaum to do what he couldn’t, and break complicity, particularly at local levels. He urges her to invest in building robust law enforcement agencies and to reverse the judiciary reform, allocating the money instead to rebuilding Mexico’s institutions.
“The only path to development is through institutions that uphold the law,” Calderón says. He dismisses what he describes as leftist theories that rule of law follows development: “It’s the other way around.” He links this directly with Morena’s judicial reforms, bluntly telling me, “They are taking Mexico into the abyss and destroying a very essential element of democracy and the rule of law.”
It’s a harsh critique. But he welcomes Sheinbaum’s anti-nepotism push, “Look at Guerrero’s Salgado Macedonio,” Calderón tells me. “Or Zacatecas’ Monreal. Those are ruthless family dynasties in states that are being destroyed by corruption and complicity with crime.”
For Sheinbaum, tackling corruption has high stakes. Over security, she seems to have wandered into broad philosophical alignment with Calderón. But if Trump presses for increasing confrontations with the cartels, Sheinbaum could end up with a drug war outstripping Calderón’s, whatever her semantics.
Whether or not Sheinbaum is engaged in a “war,” the tragic death toll remains at wartime levels. Critics blame Calderón for provoking cartel violence, asserting this confrontation was the original sin of modern Mexico. He sees it differently, saying, “Violence comes from cartels fighting for territorial control.” Calderón links Mexico’s rise in per capita income and higher consumption capacity with criminal groups’ fight for newly emergent local markets. “Those confrontations were inevitable. They started when I was in office, but like a volcano, it was going to erupt."
This contrasts with Sheinbaum, who blames US actions for the current violence in Sinaloa, rather than criminality. It’s a rationalization of events that risks repeating AMLO’s approach of denying the severity of Mexico’s problem. Felbab-Brown dismissed such deflection, saying, “There are better ways or disastrous ways to take cartels on. But at the end of the day, narcos are eating Mexico alive. And [AMLO] betrayed Mexico. It's betraying the Mexican people when the government gives narcos carte blanche.”
Calderón admits he could have been bolder in driving through legal reforms. The García Luna scandal is also scarring.
Yet, despite setbacks and the disastrous security legacy AMLO gifted Sheinbaum, Calderón remains hopeful. “Mexicans are honest, hardworking, principled people. It’s a great country under pressure. I hate the situation. But I still believe good will prevail.”
Many see Calderón as Sheinbaum’s antithesis. For her supporters he’s a bogeyman. But some of her actions betray a shared understanding: the struggle with organized crime isn’t just policy; it’s a battle for Mexico’s stability, growth, and its place among nations. AMLO refused that reality, leaving Sheinbaum to revive Calderón’s fight under huge pressure from Washington. Whether or not she meets the challenge, like so much that is unprecedented in this moment, an old adversary is willing her on.