Trump 2.0 is “more complex”; Sheinbaum insists “No reason to worry”
Donald Trump speaks at the US southern border in Arizona, August 22 2024. Image credit: Associated Press / Alamy.
By David Agren, Writer-at-Large for The Mexico Brief. 8 November 2024.
President Claudia Sheinbaum put a brave face on Donald Trump’s re-election, telling the country, “There’s no reason to worry,” and adding, “Mexico always comes out ahead. We are an independent, free, sovereign country. There will be a good relationship with the United States, I am convinced of that.”
Sheinbaum also promised to wait for the final election results before congratulating Trump, but later expressed congratulations with a Thursday post on X – avoiding AMLO’s example from 2020, when he was among the last world leaders to recognize Joe Biden’s victory. She later spoke with the president-elect.
The understated response and initial willingness to delay congratulations suggested a nonchalance with the incoming Trump administration, which has threatened punishing tariffs, mass deportations and military intervention against drug cartels.
Her morning press conferences also showed a combativeness against anyone counseling seriousness with a second Trump administration. Sheinbaum was asked about unspecified comments from Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s Ambassador to Washington from 2019 to early 2021, during the López Obrador administration. Bárcena wrote in a series of X posts that Trump’s threats were “not just campaign rhetoric.”
Sheinbaum responded Thursday, “I don’t believe these declarations help.” Then she insisted, “Mexico is solid on these topics. Mexicans are always going to be united and we’re going to confront the problems that may arise.”
Trump repeatedly threatened and denigrated Mexico on his rise to power. He continued the threats in 2024, telling a late campaign rally that he would impose 25 percent tariffs if “they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country.” He then patronised Sheinbaum, calling her a “very, very nice lady.”
Sheinbaum has responded by pointing – correctly – that migrant arrivals at the US border have crashed 75 percent since December 2023, though she didn’t boast of robust Mexican enforcement. She also insisted, “Mexico is ready.” Analysts aren’t so sure.
“We need to have an intelligent strategy,” Bárcena told The Mexico Brief. “But saying these are but these were only campaign promises that will not be fulfilled, I don’t think they are reading the reality.”
Much of the nonchalance comes from the expectations in the ruling party that the relationship between Trump and former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be revived. In its first incarnation, the former Mexican president insisted his U.S. counterpart “respected” Mexico, even as Trump threatened escalating tariffs if migrants weren’t stopped. AMLO even indulged Trump’s claims of electoral fraud and never condemned the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol. AMLO supporters, meanwhile, insisted the president “tamed” Trump – and even expressed support for the developer-turned-president.
“López Obrador never tamed Trump,” Bárcena said. “I told him that.” Instead, Bárcena says the relationship revolved around two issues: trade and immigration. Reviving that arrangement is unlikely, according to Bárcena because the bilateral relationship has become “more complex.”
The USCMA trade agreement comes up for review in 2026 as Trump promises tariffs and his running mate J.D. Vance promotes protectionism. Chinese imports are flooding into Mexico – with Chinese EVs capturing market increasing market share – and Chinese companies are building plants in Mexico to comply with USMCA rules.
Trump is threatening mass deportations – a move which could strain Mexico’s consulates in the US after AMLO underinvested in the foreign ministry. Republicans are likely to promote the return of “Remain in Mexico,” in which migrants await their asylum cases in Mexico while their claims are heard in U.S. courts. The program largely left migrants languishing in Mexican border cities, where they were preyed upon by drug cartels and ignored by AMLO’s administration. (A source familiar with Sheinbaum’s thinking on immigration called Remain in Mexico: “a red line.”)
Then there’s security: Trump mused about bombing Mexico during his first administration, according to insider accounts published after he left office. He’s pledged to designate drug cartels as terror organizations. And some Republicans have mused of sending soldiers to smash those groups.
“(Mexico) didn’t do badly, negotiating at the margin in different stages during the López Obrador years,” said Federico Estévez, a political scientist. But security ultimately derailed the arrangement AMLO had with the US to focus on immigration and trade with the detention of Sinaloa Cartel boss Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. AMLO railed against the removal of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada from Mexico. Both he and Sheinbaum blamed his abduction for an outbreak of violence in Sinaloa.
The episode shows the challenges of keeping the bilateral relationship focused on trade and immigration.
“When you're just up against the elephant, there’s not a lot you can do,” Estévez said. “It’s realism in the pure sense, we're condemned by geography. We get some benefits from it and a lot of risks, as well as ill treatment. In historical terms, they aren’t going to change ever.”