President-elect Donald Trump announced a flurry of cabinet picks this week, and it wasn’t good news for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. The roster is full of figures who can only be described as “Mexico hawks.” Sheinbaum’s response so far feels like that of a deer caught in headlights. 

From supporters of US military action in Mexico to Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) designations, the team signals a willingness to escalate confrontation. Figures like Matt Gaetz, Tom Homan, and Mike Waltz all support these aggressive measures, while trade czar Robert Lighthizer will drive a hard bargain on the economic front. Homeland Security designate Kristi Noem calls the border “a war zone.”

Marco Rubio strikes a more diplomatic tone. Former US Ambassador to Mexico Earl Anthony Wayne says he expects Rubio to “demand more from Mexico,” while trying to keep good relations on trade, migration, and defence.

Rubio excepted; the line-up confirms what many have predicted. Trump 2.0 will lean harder into his “maximum pressure” tactics. That means the cost of cooperation for Mexico will rise dramatically. Migration is one obvious flashpoint. The deportations mooted under Trump’s new administration could devastate the remittance flows Mexico depends on.

US investors, meanwhile, may delay major projects, waiting to see how Trump handles USMCA. Trump whisperer Elon Musk paused his much-hyped Tesla plant in Nuevo León months ago. His silence on the subject since Trump’s election speaks volumes. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has noticed. It’s one example of how this could play out.

Then there’s fentanyl. Unlike previous drug crises, this one has reshaped America’s political and social landscape. Many Americans, particularly Republicans, blame Mexican organised crime. Proposals for military action against cartels enjoy mainstream Republican support. Even without direct intervention, FTO designations for cartels are likely.  Such designations would have disruptive consequences. The country’s formal economy is intertwined with illicit money from cartels, often in ways that legitimate businesses aren’t aware of.

Sheinbaum’s made some proactive moves. She’s sent a delegation to Washington and Ottawa. She’s also reaching out to US private sector leaders through her business liaison, Altagracia Gómez. These efforts are good but insufficient.  Sheinbaum appears to believe that data and reason will win the day. This week, she announced plans to present Trump with data showing Mexico’s economic benefits to the US, describing it as the “ace” up her sleeve.

But Sheinbaum doesn’t need PowerPoints. She needs bold, visible actions. Cracking down on Mexico’s largest criminal groups would send a strong signal to Washington. She could start by demanding the resignation of Sinaloa’s Morena Party governor, Rubén Rocha Moya, accused of links to the Sinaloa Cartel. She could follow it up by launching aggressive action against warring factions in the state. She could start talking about cartel leaders as traitors to Mexico, rather than her critics.

Some argue Mexico will manage Trump as it did before. They point to its trading status, its role in controlling migration, and its diplomatic outreach. But Mexico’s economic position is weaker than in 2019 and getting worse. The resentment many Americans feel over the fentanyl crisis is stronger than policymakers in Mexico might realise. Mexico’s once confident diplomatic corps is depleted after six years of austerity.

Sheinbaum is capable, but she isn’t AMLO. Trump isn’t the same either. His cabinet picks show how his second administration will be more aggressive, less predictable, and harder to navigate. The belief that Mexico can muddle through is a dangerous one. For Sheinbaum, the path forward requires decisive action, along with the willingness to build new domestic alliances – and to rethink old assumptions.