Earl Anthony Wayne’s 5 Questions US policymakers will have for Sheinbaum’s 1st 100 Days

Welcome to the second in our recurring series looking at what to expect from Claudia Sheinbaum’s incoming administration. This time, we caught up with Washington’s former Ambassador to Mexico, Earl Anthony Wayne, who served under President Obama from 2011 - 2015. Here, he lays out the five key things policymakers in Washington will be watching as President-elect Sheinbaum takes office.

Constitutional reforms.

Will Mexico’s constitutional reforms cause damage to bilateral relations, Mexico’s investment environment and its democracy?  AMLO has proposed, and Sheinbaum supports, several constitutional reforms for Congress to consider in September. Some reforms could undermine the USMCA trade framework, treatment of US firms and products, and Mexico’s investment climate.  Massively rejiggering the justice system and eliminating autonomous regulatory authorities, among other proposals, would set off alarms.  Other proposals would give the executive branch more power over the legislature and the judiciary, raising concerns about Mexico’s democracy.

  • Migration.

    Will Sheinbaum strengthen cooperation on managing migration?  Will her administration become a better partner in building regional cooperation?  Migration has been the top priority for Biden and will be central for Harris or Trump.  AMLO’s team has been working closely with the US and crossing numbers are down, but to sustain improvement, Mexico should invest more funds and personnel in reducing migrant flows and migrant smuggling to the US border and join in encouraging other countries to join in more effective cooperative efforts to reduce migrant numbers.  These issues will attract much critical attention from Republicans this fall.

  • Organized Crime.

    Will Sheinbaum strengthen US-Mexico cooperation against cross border crime and transnational criminal organizations?  During most of the AMLO administration the US and Mexico cooperated at arm’s length on public security and justice issues. AMLO remained suspicious of US meddling.  The situation improved from since 2021, when the two countries agreed on a new cooperation framework. But collaboration falls far short of  a trusting and close partnership on intelligence, enforcement and justice against the criminal networks that bring deadly drugs into the US and high powered arms and massive illicit funds into Mexico.  US policy makers be watching if Sheinbaum is willing and able to boost bilateral cooperation and strengthen Mexico’s weak intelligence, law enforcement and justice systems?   

Nearshoring.

Can Sheinbaum turbo charge efforts to attract nearshoring, strengthen supply chains and incorporate SMEs (PYMES) into USMCA commercial networks?  Mexico has great potential for new foreign investment, but so far has not attracted a lot of fresh FDI.  Sheinbaum hopes to promote nearshoring, but the investment climate suffers from energy and water shortages, poor transportation infrastructure, and insecurity.  US policy makers will be watching for clear commitment to mobilize the political and financial capital to address these problems well.

USMCA.

Will Sheinbaum work constructively to solve outstanding trade and commercial disputes and to prepare for a smooth 2026 review of USMCA?  USMCA has progressed  smoothly over its first four years with substantial trade growth.   Several disputes key remain unresolved, however.  China is trying to expand its presence in Mexico.  In 2026, the three countries must review USMCA’s functioning to date.  They can suggest adjustments without reopening the agreement, and they will consider whether to extend USMCA unchanged for 16 years or to move to annual reviews.  US policy makers will be watching closely for Sheinbaum’s approach.