Don’t be fooled by Trump-Sheinbaum détente

President Claudia Sheinbaum, with Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente, speaking on the phone to US President-elect Donald Trump on 27 November. Image credit: Claudia Sheinbaum’s X account.

President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke by phone on Wednesday. Sheinbaum called the conversation “excellent.” Trump, for his part, described it as “wonderful.” Both sides issued statements framing the call as productive, but the details didn’t match. According to Mexico’s National Palace, Sheinbaum emphasized “building bridges, not closing borders.” Trump claimed she had agreed to “effectively” shut down migration at Mexico’s southern border.

The call came at a high-stakes moment. Earlier this week, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless they cracked down on Chinese imports, migration, and drug trafficking. Mexico is the US’ largest trade partner. Tariffs of that magnitude would hammer Mexico’s economy but also inflict serious damage on the US.

Sheinbaum had harshly criticized Trump’s tariff threat earlier this week. She warned of retaliatory tariffs on US imports and argued that Mexico was already breaking up migrant caravans before they reached the border She also pushed back on fentanyl, insisting it was a US demand issue, not a Mexican one. Yet her tone softened after the call. She walked back the counter-tariff threats, signalling a shift.

So, who’s problem is this really?

Behind the rhetoric, Mexico is cracking down hard. Mexico detained nearly 800,000 migrants in 2023. As we reported previously that number skyrocketed this year. Once detained, Mexican authorities transport these migrants deep into Mexico’s underdeveloped and remote south, with no state support, in the hopes they will self-deport (most don’t).

Sheinbaum’s government relies on brute force and neglect, not the asylum system Mexico’s Ambassador Moctezuma Barragán highlighted this week when he told CNN that Mexico granted 140,000 asylum permits last year. That’s misleading. According to the UN Refugee Agency, in 2023 Mexico received 140,000 asylum applications, and approved roughly 21,000.  Even so, Barragán’s message was right: on migration, however harshly, Mexico is doing its part.

Then there’s fentanyl. US overdose deaths are falling, and have been all year. According to NPR, that’s thanks to public health measures, Mexican interventions, and suppliers intentionally weakening their product. But Trump’s hard-line approach could disrupt this fragile progress. At the same time, Sheinbaum’s insistence that this isn’t Mexico’s problem is only half true. Reuters reports that Mexico hasn’t released comprehensive data around domestic fentanyl use for nearly three years, but the data from 2021, coupled with subsequent reports, point to a worrying increase. Northern border cities face documented cases of rising fentanyl addiction, alongside a severe nationwide meth crisis that Morena has all but ignored.

Here’s the reality: both leaders are playing to their domestic audiences. Trump paints the US as a victim of Mexican malfeasance. Sheinbaum casts Mexico as a noble nation burdened by its neighbour’s vices. These narratives serve Trump’s MAGA base and Sheinbaum’s Morena supporters.

It’s tempting to see the warm post-call statements as the end of this drama—that Trump will continue blustering his way to easy PR wins, and Sheinbaum will keep placating him to protect trade and pursue her political agenda in peace. But history shows Trump’s satisfaction is fleeting. He’ll be back with more demands, and the threats will escalate. This week’s rhetorical skirmish was a mere dress rehearsal for the more dangerous battles ahead.