Trump’s tariff bombshell exposes Mexico - Canada rift

President-elect Donald Trump. Image credit: Associated Press / Alamy.

Overnight, President-elect Donald Trump jumped onto social media with a bombshell policy announcement: a promise to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China on “day one” of his presidency. The reaction? Alarm and disbelief.

Catherine Rampell, a Washington Post columnist, flagged an important reality on the social media platform BlueSky. Two-thirds of US tomatoes come from Mexico. Same with 90% of avocados. A 25% tariff? That’s a recipe for grocery price chaos. Beyond groceries, Mexico is critical to the US automotive sector. New car prices, already high, would surge further. Mexican journalist Ann Louise Deslandes pointed out the absurdity of using tariffs to combat drug trafficking.

While all this matters, it misses the bigger point.

Trump’s timing isn’t random. This isn’t about tariffs. It’s about politics. The announcement comes right after a diplomatic squabble broke out between Mexico and Canada over Chinese imports. In response, Mexico hastily introduced a law to replace certain Chinese-made parts with Mexican-made ones. Trump sees an opening to push China further out of America’s backyard. This is less a policy declaration than a move to stir up more trouble amongst bickering allies. The goal? To extract even more concessions from Mexico and Canada on China. He’s throwing a cat amongst the pigeons to watch what happens.

It’ll probably work.

Canada’s recent aggressive stance toward Mexico is a symptom of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s weak political standing. It’s bluster without strategy. Mexico, meanwhile, has been caught flat-footed. Its diminished diplomatic corps, coupled with a government distracted by unnecessary domestic upheaval, wasn’t prepared for this kind of posturing from Canada. It’s not even clear Mexico was prepared for Trump. The result? Both countries are now scrambling. They’ll likely end up imposing harsher policies against China than they planned, just to calm the storm. That means more pain for their own economies, and Trump hasn’t actually done anything yet.

To be clear: tariffs, at some level, against Mexican imports to the US seem inevitable. Trump made them too central to his campaign to back down entirely. But a 25% hit on day one? Maybe, but maybe not. This is theatre. A negotiating gambit, not a policy announcement.

Canada and Mexico need to see this for what it is. The real danger isn’t Trump’s threats. It’s their own lack of coordination. If they don’t start working together, they’ll end up handing Trump more wins before the game even starts.