As Mexico’s political opposition crumbles, a contender emerges.
Alito Moreno, leader of the PRI, speaks during a commemoration of slain presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio. Photo credit: Raj Valley.
Mexico’s opposition alliance is dead. Its three parties — the 95-year-old former ruling party PRI, historic opposition force PAN, and left-wing PRD — are discredited. The PRD lost its party registration. Only street-level civil society groups remain to challenge Morena, the ruling party of President López Obrador (AMLO) and President-elect Sheinbaum.
On Sunday the PRI held its National Council and voted to extend controversial leader Alito Moreno’s term limit. During the meeting, Moreno defended the party’s 71-year rule over Mexico from 1929 – 2000. He declared, “The best thing that can happen to Mexico is for the PRI to return and govern again.”
He’ll be waiting beyond his extended term for that. Sources told The Mexico Brief (TMB) to expect numerous PRI defections to AMLO’s Morena by September’s judicial reform vote. This will hand the President a final victory. It will end PRI’s remaining electoral relevance, too.
Former Mexican Ambassador to Washington, Arturo Sarukhán, spoke to TMB. He noted, “The PRI has already delivered the State of Mexico to Morena. The PRI governor of Oaxaca is now a Morena senator.” Explaining these and other defections, he added “there are some cases where people have been bought off. But Morena’s DNA is the PRI of the 60s and 70s. The only difference is they’ve donned a purple suit (purple being the colour of Morena’s logo).” TMB could not independently verify the allegation regarding payoffs to unnamed individuals.
Meanwhile, the PAN has retreated to its traditional strongholds. It’s split internally and lacks an obvious new leader. The political landscape resembles Mexico’s pre-democracy era.
Speaking about the PAN, Sarukhán highlighted Senator Santiago Creel’s influence. He said, “Creel played a very important role in Mexico’s transition to democracy and the creation, and reputation, of Mexico’s independent electoral body. But it’s time for a generational passing of the baton in the PAN. It’s troubling that people like Creel were aligning with [Spanish far-right party] Vox before the election started. The results force the PAN to do important soul-searching, or they’ll lose Guanajuato.”
The outlier in June’s election was Citizen’s Movement (MC). Separate from the opposition coalition, MC secured 10% of the vote. Some accused the party of being a spoiler for Morena. Party leader Dante Delgado denied this.
For Sarukhán, MC figure Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas is one to watch. He’s the son and namesake of the slain 1994 presidential candidate. He’s also outgoing mayor of Monterrey. Sarukhán remarked, “A lot depends on Sheinbaum’s administration. We don’t know how (she) will govern. But if he plays his cards right, Colosio could become a significant, galvanizing figure in the opposition.”
Morena’s a broad church, with many internal differences that will stress it. It has many reasons to hold together, too. Without an opposition, it probably will. Street protests don’t equal opposition politics. Opposition politics require an opposition party. The alliance’s collapse opens a door for MC. In Colosio, it has a charismatic potential leader. This positions MC as the logical political home for street-level resistance to the government. Morena should take notice.