Trump assassination attempt has lessons for Mexico.
Former President Donald Trump with then-Senate candidate JD Vance in Ohio, 2022. Photo credit: Michael Conroy.
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump on Saturday highlights the chaos of political violence. The raft of op-eds questioning the event’s effect on markets highlights the impact of such violence on business. Trump's subsequent pick as running mate of JD Vance, known for provocative rhetoric, has further unnerved GOP business leaders.
Before the shooting, in Mexico, President-elect Sheinbaum’s liaison with the private sector, Altagracia Gómez, was meeting news outlets. Explaining Sheinbaum’s vision for economic growth, she was swiftly overshadowed by events.
According to El Universal, Gómez advocated for higher wages and more infrastructure projects to spur Mexico’s underwhelming growth rate. She said, “it’s not that we want fewer rich people, we want fewer poor people.” That approach under President López Obrador (AMLO) hasn’t resulted in stronger economic growth. But events in America should serve as a reminder that political violence also has influence on growth prospects.
Sheinbaum enters office during the most violent period in Mexico’s post-Revolutionary history. Her election as the first female president was also historic for being the most violent. That a sense of crisis doesn’t dominate media coverage of Sheinbaum’s transition is noteworthy. It speaks to how inured Mexico has become to the situation.
Rising political violence in Mexico undermines Sheinbaum’s growth plans. It also spotlights AMLO's harmful rhetoric. For example, this weekend Mexico’s electoral court found AMLO “coerced the vote” in the recent election. The court ruled he linked social programme funds to votes for his party. Politico MX reports AMLO’s response was to call the judges “liars and corrupt.”
This rhetoric stretches back to 2018. Public harassment of critics. Doxing of journalists. Ad hominin attacks against feminist protesters. These have been hallmarks of AMLO’s daily press conferences. Hostile attitudes toward critics are nothing new for Mexican presidents. Nevertheless, AMLO’s daily attacks crossed a new line.
And so Sheinbaum inherits the polarised society AMLO made worse, and which her landslide victory belies. She’s said she’ll embrace AMLO’s controversial changes to Mexico’s constitution in September. The proposals include directly elected judges and merging the National Guard with the constitutionally unaccountable military.
These amendments will make future elections more violent. They make judges more exposed to organised crime. They make the National Guard even less accountable to the public. They will increase insecurity. In turn, this will test international business confidence in Mexico, which Sheinbaum requires to “put the poor first.”
As a scientist, Sheinbaum knows external scrutiny improves outcomes. If passed by AMLO in September, these reforms should go to public consultation once Sheinbaum takes over in October. Alongside consultations, her administration should produce a credible plan to reduce political violence and strengthen civil society groups.
Trump’s assassination attempt is a stark reminder of Mexico’s own precipice. Sheinbaum will enter office facing huge fiscal and security challenges. Thankfully, it’s hard to imagine her continuing the worst of AMLO’s rhetoric. But as presented, these reforms don’t help matters. Sheinbaum should instead act to steer the country back from the edge.