Trump’s new imperialism changes Mexico’s political calculus
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Image Credit: Media Punch/Alamy.
by Jacques Coste, guest columnist. Jacques is a regular contributor to Expansión Política and Nexos, with expertise in the history of violence, democratic transitions, and neoliberalism in Latin America, particularly Mexico. He is a PhD candidate at Stony Brook University.
At the Super Bowl this weekend, President Donald Trump again confirmed his intent to annex Canada. Alongside his policy to permanently and forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza, tensions with Denmark over Greenland, and threats against Panama, Trump is ushering in a new era of American imperialism, as he pledged to do in his inauguration speech. This shift is forcing Mexican policymakers to rethink the challenges posed by Trump’s second term.
Previously, the US exerted its influence through global institutions it helped create after WWII. Now, it is dismantling that system, using its power not to enforce those rules but to break them. This transformation is forcing US -Mexico relations into a new historical phase.
The recent 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods are just the beginning. Trump “suspended” them after President Claudia Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 additional National Guard troops to the border and promised more cooperation to curb fentanyl trafficking. However, there is no guarantee he won’t reinstate them. More likely, he will use tariffs as leverage to force Mexico into compliance with yet unknowable, additional US demands.
Trump’s disregard for USMCA rules is a fundamental component of his new US imperialism. In general, it brings more instability to global relations. But Mexico, in particular, faces new vulnerabilities.
First, a renewed US expansionist agenda revives longstanding Mexican fears of American territorial ambitions. Even if Trump hasn’t mentioned annexing Mexico, his threats toward Canada, Greenland, and Panama are alarming. Those threats, coupled with an explicit policy of economic coercion, is a de facto challenge to Mexico’s sovereignty. In the 19th century, the US annexed Texas and invaded Mexico (1846-1848), seizing half its territory. Though limited U.S. military incursions continued into the 1910s, the post-revolutionary era brought stability. Over time, Mexico no longer saw the US as an expansionist threat and settled into a mostly comfortable marriage of convenience.
Now, Trump’s labelling of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations makes unilateral US military action on Mexican soil plausible again.
Another shift is the collapse of the Good Neighbor policy. Historian Eric Zolov argues that President Franklin D Roosevelt’s approach to Latin America endured in Mexico for decades. During the PRI era, both nations struck pragmatic deals: Mexico helped contain communism as an example of a “responsible” revolutionary government, while the US reduced interference in its affairs. This quid pro quo was later complemented by NAFTA which forged a new North American partnership, aligning Mexican and American economic and political interests.
The US has never treated Mexico as an equal, nor has it pursued deeper economic, cultural, or social integration beyond NAFTA. Mexican migrants continued to face persistent mistreatment, and the US-backed War on Drugs has devastated Mexico. But at least Mexico was considered an ally. Under Trump, that is no longer the case.
Washington now views Mexico with suspicion and contempt. To Trump, Mexico is the primary source of migration, fentanyl, crime, unfair trade, and Chinese imports, to name a few. Instead of a partner, Mexico is now a problem.
Under NAFTA and then USMCA, trade, migration, security, and diplomacy were compartmentalized and treated as separate issues. This created stability in the relationship. Trump, however, sees them as interconnected. This de-compartmentalization fuels economic and political uncertainty. But the de-compartmentalization is a one-way street. Trump may impose tariffs if Mexico doesn’t meet his demands on crime and migration. The US could carry out military operations against cartel leaders, and Trump will still expect Mexico to keep its markets open for US goods. His territorial threats against Canada, Greenland, Panama, and now Gaza, serve as an ominous reminder that his terms could always become more severe. This will lead to a far more unequal and volatile relationship.
The US and Mexico are entering uncharted territory. The formal and informal norms that governed their relationship for decades are eroding. The future rules and practices that will govern the bilateral relationship remain undefined. But it’s clear they will be unfavorable to Mexico, which finds itself once again wary of American imperialism.